energy and power systems

Improving Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Factor Models for the Optimal Generation Bid

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsM.Pilar Muñoz; Cristina Corchero; F.-Javier Heredia
Journal TitleInternational Statistical Review
Volume81
Issue2
Pages18 (289-306)
Start Page289
Journal DateAugust 2013
PublisherWiley
ISSN Number1751-5823
Key Wordsresearch; paper; electricity market prices; short-term forecasting; stochastic programming; factor models; price scenarios; Q2
AbstractIn liberalized electricity markets, the electricity generation companies usually manage their production by developing hourly bids that are sent to the day-ahead market. As the prices at which the energy will be purchased are unknown until the end of the bidding process, forecasting of spot prices has become an essential element in electricity management strategies. In this article, we apply forecasting factor models to the market framework in Spain and Portugal and study their performance. Although their goodness of fit is similar to that of autoregressive integrated moving average models, they are easier to implement. The second part of the paper uses the spot-price forecasting model to generate inputs for a stochastic programming model, which is then used to determine the company's optimal generation bid. The resulting optimal bidding curves are presented and analyzed in the context of the Iberian day-ahead electricity market.
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DOI10.1111/insr.12014
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/3047
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Solving Electric Market Quadratic Problems by Branch and Fix Coordination Methods

Publication TypeProceedings Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsF. -Javier Heredia; Cristina Corchero; Eugenio Mijangos
Conference Name25th IFIP TC 7 Conference, CSMO 2011
Series TitleIFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Volume391
Pagination511-520
Conference Start Date12/09/2011
PublisherSpringer Berlin Heidelberg
Conference LocationBerlin
ISSN Number1868-4238
ISBN Number978-3-642-36062-6
Key WordsLiberalized Electricity Market; Optimal Bid Stochastic Programming; Quadratic Branch-and-Fix Coordination; research; paper; DPI2008-02153
AbstractThe electric market regulation in Spain (MIBEL) establishes the rules for bilateral and futures contracts in the day-ahead optimal bid problem. Our model allows a price-taker generation company to decide the unit commitment of the thermal units, the economic dispatch of the bilateral and futures contracts between the thermal units and the optimal sale bids for the thermal units observing the MIBEL regulation. The uncertainty of the spot prices is represented through scenario sets. We solve this model on the framework of the Branch and Fix Coordination metodology as a quadratic two-stage stochastic problem. In order to gain computational efficiency, we use scenario clusters and propose to use perspective cuts. Numerical results are reported.
URLClick Here
DOI10.1007/978-3-642-36062-6_51
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Optimal Management of Microgrids

Publication TypeTesis de Grau i Màster // BSc and MSc Thesis
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsLucia Igualada González
DirectorF.-Javier Heredia; Cristina Corchero
Tipus de tesiTesi Final Màster // MSc Thesis
TitulacióMaster in Statistics and Operations Research
CentreFaculty of Mathematics and Statistics
Data defensa04/07/2012
Nota // mark10 MH // 10/10
Key Wordsresearch; teaching; smartgrids; microgrid; migrogrid central controller; electric vehicle; MSc Thesis
AbstractSmart grids and microgrids are the key in the near future where a decentralization of energy generation is expected. From the point of view of microgrid energy management, economic scheduling for generation devices, storage systems and loads is a crucial problem. Performance an optimization process is necessary to minimize the operating costs while several operational constraints are taken into account. Energy management is carried out by MCC (Microgrid Central Controller) in three steps: tertiary, secondary and primary controls. Tertiary control is executed one day-ahead and has two objectives. The first is an economic optimization using a program based on an Economic Dispatch and an Unit Commitment problem. The second objective is to improve the por tability of the supply and demand balance by interacting with the grid and taking advantage of the V2G (vehicle-to-grid) capability of the charging spot, and to generate a schedule over all components of the microgrid. The secondary control receives the scheduling plan created by tertiary control and taking into account current data, corrects the power outputs of generation units. Exchanged power with the grid and storage states of charge programmed by the tertiary control are ensured. This Energy Management System has been tested over different scenarios. One of them is based on a smart house with a photovoltaic module, a micro wind turbine and one electric vehicle charging spot. The other scenario is based on a large building where one micro gas turbine and one storage device have been added to the rest of units. After analysing the results, several conclusions have been deduced such as a change in curve of load and a lower cost for the user. Generally, the consumption over peak periods is decreased or is almost zero in some test cases, while the demand overnight is increased.
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Optimal sizing of microgrids: a fast charging station case

Publication TypeProceedings Article
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsCristina Corchero; M. Cruz; F.-Javier Heredia; J.-I. Cairo; L. Igualada; A. Romero
Conference Name2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2012)
Series TitleIEEE Conference Publications
Pagination1-6
Conference Start Date10/05/2012
PublisherIEEE
Conference LocationFlorence, Italy
EditorIEEE
ISBN Number978-1-4673-0834-2
Key Wordsresearch; electrical vehicle; smartgrids; charging station; microgrid; queuing system; paper
AbstractIn this work we focus on the optimal design of electric vehicle charging stations. We consider investment, operational costs, physical constraints and different electricity pricing strategies. The size of the various components in the microgrid architecture and the suitability of the storage system are analysed. The electric vehicle charging demand is modelled through a queuing system.
URLClick Here
DOI10.1109/EEM.2012.6254677
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Optimal electricity market bidding strategies considering emission allowances

Publication TypeProceedings Article
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsCristina Corchero; F.-Javier Heredia; Julián Cifuentes
Conference Name2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2012)
Series TitleIEEE Conference Publications
Pagination1-8
Conference Start Date10/05/2012
PublisherIEEE
Conference LocationFlorence
EditorIEEE
ISSN Number-
ISBN Number978-1-4673-0834-2
Key Wordsresearch; elecriticy; markets; CO2 allowances; emissions limits; environment; stochastic programming; modeling languages; paper
AbstractThere are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a GenCo in the current energy market framework. In this work we study the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The operational characteristics of both kinds of units are modeled in detail. We deal with this problem in the framework of the Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed.
URLClick Here
DOI10.1109/EEM.2012.6254676
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/18691
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Optimal sale bid for a wind producer in Spanish electricity market through stochastic programming

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsSimona Sacripante; F.-Javier Heredia; Cristina Corchero
Conference Name9th International Conference on Computational Management Science.
Conference Date18-20/04/2012
Conference LocationLondon
Type of WorkInvited presentation
Key Wordsresearch; stochastic programming; wind producer; renewable energy; multimarket; electricity market; optimal bid; DPI2008-02153
AbstractWind power generation has a key role in Spanish electricity system since it is a native source of energy that could help Spain to reduce its dependency on the exterior for the production of electricity. Apart from the great environmental benefits produced, wind energy reduce considerably spot energy price, reaching to cover 16,6 % of peninsular demand. Although, wind farms show high investment costs and need an efficient incentive scheme to be financed. If on one hand, Spain has been a leading country in Europe in developing a successful incentive scheme, nowadays tariff deficit and negative economic conjunctures asks for consistent reductions in the support mechanism and demand wind producers to be able to compete into the market with more mature technologies. The objective of this work is to find an optimal commercial strategy in the production market that would allow wind producer to maximize their daily profit. That can be achieved on one hand, increasing incomes in day-ahead and intraday markets, on the other hand, reducing deviation costs due to error in generation predictions. We will previously analyze market features and common practices in use and then develop our own sale strategy solving a two-stage linear stochastic optimization problem. The first stage variable will be the sale bid in the day–ahead market while second stage variables will be the offers to the six sessions of intraday market. The model is implemented using real data from a wind producer leader in Spain.
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Optimal electricity market bidding strategies considering emission allowances

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsCristina Corchero; F.-Javier Heredia; Julián Cifuentes
Conference Name9th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM12)
Conference Date10-12/05/2012
Conference LocationFlorence, Italy
Type of WorkContributed presentation
Key Wordsresearch; elecriticy; markets; CO2 allowances; emissions limits; environment; stochastic programming; modeling languages
AbstractThere are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a GenCo in the current energy market framework. In this work we study the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The operational characteristics of both kinds of units are modeled in detail. We deal with this problem in the framework of the Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed.
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Network Model of Short-Term Optimal Hydrothermal Power Flow with Security Constraints

Publication TypeProceedings Article
Year of Publication1995
AuthorsChiva, A.; Heredia, F.J.; Nabona, N.
Conference NameIEEE '95 Stockholm Power Tech
Series TitleInternational Symposium on Electric Power Engineering
Volume6, PS
Pagination67-73
Conference Start Date18/06/1995
PublisherRoyal Institute of Technology and IEEE Power Engineering Society
Conference LocationStockholm, Sweden
Key Wordsresearch; nonlinear network flows; side constraints; power systems; short-term hydrothermal OPF; spinning reserve; transmission security contraints; paper
URLClick Here
DOIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/14936
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A new optimal electricity market bid model solved through perspective cuts

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsCristina Corchero; Eugenio Mijangos; F.-Javier Heredia
Journal TitleTOP
Volume21
Issue1
Pages25
Start Page84
Journal Date04/2013
Short TitleA new optimal electricity market bid model
PublisherSpringer
ISSN Number1134-5764
Key Wordsresearch; paper; electricity market; day-ahead; bilateral contracts; future contracts; Optimal bid; Stochastic programming; Perspective cuts; mixed integer nonlinear programming; DPI2008-02153; Q3
AbstractOn current electricity markets the electrical utilities are faced with very sophisticated decision making problems under uncertainty. Moreover, when focusing in the short-term management, generation companies must include some medium-term products that directly influence their short-term strategies. In this work, the bilateral and physical futures contracts are included into the day-ahead market bid following MIBEL rules and a stochastic quadratic mixed-integer programming model is presented. The complexity of this stochastic programming problem makes unpractical the resolution of large-scale instances with general-purpose optimization codes. Therefore, in order to gain efficiency, a polyhedral outer approximation of the quadratic objective function obtained by means of perspective cuts (PC) is proposed. A set of instances of the problem has been defined with real data and solved with the PC methodology. The numerical results obtained show the efficiency of this methodology compared with standard mixed quadratic optimization solvers.
URLClick Here
DOI10.1007/s11750-011-0240-6
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/18368
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A multistage stochastic programming model for the optimal multimarket electricity bid problem

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Cristina Corchero
Conference NameOptimization, Theory, Algorithms and Applications in Economics (OPT 2011)
Conference Date24-28/10/2011
Conference LocationCentre de Recerca Matemàtica. Barcelona, Spain.
Type of WorkInvited presentation
Key Wordsresearch; optimal bid; day-ahead electricity market; multimarket; perspective cuts; bilateral contracts; futures contracts; stochastic programming; DPI2008-02153
AbstractShort-term electricity market is made up of a sequence of markets, that is, it is a multimarket enviroment. In the case of the Iberian Energy Market the sequence of major short-term electricity markets are the day-ahead market, the ancillary service market or secondary reserve market (henceforth reserve market), and a set of six intraday markets. Generation Companies (GenCos) that participate in the electricity market could increase their benefits by jointly optimizing their participation in this sequence of electricity markets. This work proposes a stochastic programming model that gives the GenCo the optimal bidding strategy for the day-ahead market (DAM), which considers the benefits and costs of participating in the subsequent markets and which includes both physical futures contracts and bilateral contracts. Numerical results are reported and discussed.
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