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Multistage Scenario Trees Generation for Electricity Markets Optimization

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2021
AuthorsMarlyn Dayana Cuadrado Guevara; F.-Javier Heredia
Conference Name31st European Conference on Operational Research.
Conference Date11-14/07/2021
Conference LocationAthens
Type of WorkInvited presentation
ISBN NumberISBN 978-618-85079-1-3
Key Wordsresearch; multistage stochastich programming; virtual power plants; electricity markets; scenarios tree generation
AbstractThe presence of renewables in electricity markets optimization have generated a high level of uncertainty in the data, which has led to a need for applying stochastic optimization to model this kind of problems. In this work, we apply Multistage Stochastic Programming (MSP) using scenario trees to represent energy prices and wind power generation. We developed a methodology of two phases where, in the first phase, a procedure to predict the next day for each random parameter of the MSP models is used, and, in the second phase, a set of scenario trees are built through Forward Tree Construction Algorithm (FTCA) and a modified Dynamic Tree Generation with a Flexible Bushiness Algorithm (DTGFBA). This methodology was used to generate scenario trees for the Multistage Stochastic Wind Battery Virtual Power Plant model (MSWBVPP model), which were based on MIBEL prices and wind power generation of a real wind farm in Spain. In addition, we solved three di erent case studies corresponding to three di erent hypotheses on the virtual power plant’s participation in electricity markets. Finally, we study the relative performance of the FTCA and DTGFBA scenario trees, analysing the value of the stochastic solution through the Forecasted Value of the Stochastic Solution (FVSS) and the classical VSS for the 366 daily instances of the MSWBVPP problem spanning a complete year.
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Multistage Scenario Trees Generation for Renewable Energy Systems Optimization

Publication TypeThesis
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsMarlyn Dayana Cuadrado Guevara
Academic DepartmentDept. of Statistics and Operations Research. Prof. F.-Javier Heredia, advisor.
Number of Pages194
UniversityUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech
CityBarcelona
DegreePhD Thesis
Key Wordsresearch; Battery energy storage systems; Electricity markets; Ancillary services market; Wind power generation; Virtual power plants; Multistage Stochastic programming; phd thesis
AbstractThe presence of renewables in energy systems optimization have generated a high level of uncertainty in the data, which has led to a need for applying stochastic optimization to modelling problems with this characteristic. The method followed in this thesis is Multistage Stochastic Programming (MSP). Central to MSP is the idea of representing uncertainty (which, in this case, is modelled with a stochastic process) using scenario trees. In this thesis, we developed a methodology that starts with available historical data; generates a set of scenarios for each random variable of the MSP model; defines individual scenarios that are used to build the initial stochastic process (as a fan or an initial scenario tree); and builds the final scenario trees that are the approximation of the stochastic process.
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New paper published in International Journal of Production Research.

 The paper entitled Optimal Postponement in Supply Chain Network Design Under Uncertainty: An Application for Additive Manufacturing (preprint has been published in the International Journal of Production Research. This paper is the result of projects Strategical Models in Supply Chain Design, and Digitalizing Supply Chain Strategy with 3D Printing a successful collaboration between GNOM with Accenture Technology Labs (Silicon Valley), Accenture Analytics Innovation Center (Barcelona) and the Fundació CIM-UPC. This study This study presents a new two-stage stochastic programming decision model for assessing how to introduce some new manufacturing technology into any generic supply and distribution chain. It additionally determines the optimal degree of postponement, as represented by the so-called customer order decoupling point (CODP), while assuming uncertainty in demand for multiple products. Finally, it presents and analyses a case study for introducing additive manufacturing technologies.

Optimal Postponement in Supply Chain Network Design Under Uncertainty: An Application for Additive Manufacturing

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2020
AuthorsDaniel Ramón-Lumbierres; F.-Javier Heredia; Joaquim Minguella-Canela; Asier Muguruza-Blanco
Journal TitleInternational Journal of Production Research
Pages5198-5215
Journal Date07/2020
PublisherTaylor&Francis
ISSN Number0020-7543
Key Wordsmanufacturing; postponement; stochastic programming; supply chain network design; 3D printing; additive manufacturing; research; paper
AbstractThis study presents a new two-stage stochastic programming decision model for assessing how to introduce some new manufacturing technology into any generic supply and distribution chain. It additionally determines the optimal degree of postponement, as represented by the so-called customer order decoupling point (CODP), while assuming uncertainty in demand for multiple products. To this end, we propose here the formulation of a generic supply chain through an oriented graph that represents all the deployable alternative technologies, which are defined through a set of operations that are characterized by lead times and cost parameters. Based on this graph, we develop a mixed integer two-stage stochastic program that finds the optimal manufacturing technology for meeting each market’s demand, each operation’s optimal production quantity, and each selected technology’s optimal CODP. We also present and analyse a case study for introducing additive manufacturing technologies.
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DOI10.1080/00207543.2020.1775908
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/327874
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A multistage stochastic programming model for the optimal bid of a wind producer

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Marlyn D. Cuadrado; J.-Anton Sánchez
Conference Name23th International Symposium on Mathematical Programming
Conference Date01-06/07/2018
Conference LocationBordeaux
Type of Workcontributed presentation
Key Wordsresearch; Battery energy storage systems; Electricity markets; Ancillary services market; Wind power generation; Virtual power plants; Stochastic programming
AbstractAbstract: Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) can be used by wind producers to improve the operation of wind power plants (WPP) in electricity markets. Associating a wind power plant with a BESS (the so-called Virtual Power Plant (VPP)) provides utilities with a tool that converts uncertain wind power production into a dispatchable technology that can operate not only in spot and adjustment markets (day-ahead and intraday markets) but also in ancillary services markets that, up to now, were forbidden to non-dispatchable technologies. We present in this study a multi-stage stochastic programming model to find the optimal operation of a VPP in the day-ahead, intraday and secondary reserve markets while taking into account uncertainty in wind power generation and clearing prices (day-ahead, secondary reserve, intraday markets and system imbalances). A new forecasting procedure for the random variables involved in stochastic programming model has been developed. The forecasting model is based on Time Factor Series Analysis (TFSA) and gives suitable results while reducing the dimensionality of the forecasting mode. The quality of the scenario trees generated using the TFSA forecasting models with real electricity markets and wind production data has been analysed through multistage VSS.
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On optimal participation in the electricity markets of wind power plants with battery energy storage systems

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Marlyn D. Cuadrado; Cristina Corchero
Journal TitleComputers and Operations Research
Volume96
Pages316-329
Journal Date08/2018
PublisherElsevier
ISSN Number0305-0548
Key Wordsresearch; Battery energy storage systems; Electricity markets; Ancillary services market; Wind power generation; Virtual power plants; Stochastic programming; paper
AbstractThe recent cost reduction and technological advances in medium- to large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) makes these devices a true alternative for wind producers operating in electricity markets. Associating a wind power farm with a BESS (the so-called virtual power plant (VPP)) provides utilities with a tool that converts uncertain wind power production into a dispatchable technology that can operate not only in spot and adjustment markets (day-ahead and intraday markets) but also in ancillary services markets that, up to now, were forbidden to non-dispatchable technologies. What is more, recent studies have shown capital cost investment in BESS can be recovered only by means of such a VPP participating in the ancillary services markets. We present in this study a multi-stage stochastic programming model to find the optimal operation of a VPP in the day-ahead, intraday and secondary reserve markets while taking into account uncertainty in wind power generation and clearing prices (day-ahead, secondary reserve, intraday markets and system imbalances). A case study with real data from the Iberian electricity market is presented.
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DOI10.1016/j.cor.2018.03.004
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/118479
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Stochastic optimal generation bid to electricity markets with emissions risk constraints.

Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Julián Cifuentes-Rubiano; Cristina Corchero
Journal TitleJournal of Environmental Management
Volume207
Issue1
Pages12
Start Page432
Journal DateFebruary 2018
PublisherElsevier
ISSN Number0301-4797
Key Wordsresearch; OR in Energy; Stochastic Programming; Risk Management; Electricity market; Emissions reduction; paper
AbstractThere are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) within the framework of the current energy market. Environmental policy issues are giving rise to emission limitation that are becoming more and more important for fossil-fueled power plants, and these must be considered in their management. This work investigates the influence of the emissions reduction plan and the incorporation of the medium-term derivative commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy for the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the high-emission technology of thermal coal units and the low-emission technology of combined cycle gas turbine units. The Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) and the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan (NERP) defines the environmental framework for dealing with the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, we have extended some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), thus leading to the new concept of Conditional Emission at Risk (CEaR). This study offers electricity generation utilities a mathematical model for determining the unit’s optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market such that it maximizes the long-term profits of the utility while allowing it to abide by the Iberian Electricity Market rules as well as the environmental restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. We analyze the economic implications for a GenCo that includes the environmental restrictions of this National Plan as well as the NERP’s effects on the expected profits and the optimal generation bid.
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DOI10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.11.010
Preprinthttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/114024
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A Multistage Stochastic Programming Model for the Optimal Bid of Wind-BESS Virtual Power Plants to Electricity Markets

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2017
AuthorsF.-Javier Heredia; Marlyn D. Cuadrado; J.-Anton Sánchez
Conference Name4th International Conference on Optimization Methods and Software 2017
Conference Date16-21/12/2017
Conference LocationLa Havana
Type of WorkInvited presentation
Key Wordsmultistage; VSS; wind-BESS VPP; wind power; energy storage; battery; research
AbstractOne of the objectives of the FOWGEN project (https://fowgem.upc.edu) was to study the economic feasibility and optimal operation of a wind-BESS Virtual Power Plant (VPP): In [1] an ex-post economic analysis shows the economic viability of a wind-BESS VPP thanks to the optimal operation in day-ahead and ancillary electricity markets; In [2] a new multi-stage stochastic programming model (WBVPP)for the optimal bid of a wind producer both in spot and ancillary services electricity markets is developed. The work presented here extends the study in [2] with a new methodology to treat the uncertainty, based in forecasting models, and the study of the quality of the stochastic solution. [1] F-Javier Heredia et al. Economic analysis of battery electric storage systems operating in electricity markets 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM15), 2015 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2015.7216739. [2] F-Javier Heredia et al. On optimal participation in the electricity markets of wind power plants with battery energy storage system. Submitted, under second revision. 2017.
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Optimal Supply Chain Strategy and Postponement Degree with 3D Printing

Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsDaniel Ramon Lumbierres; Asier Muguruza; Robert Gimeno Feu; Ping Guo; Mary Hamilton; Kiron Shastry; Sunny Webb; Joaquim Minguella; F.-Javier Heredia
Conference Name28th European Conference on Operational Research
Series TitleConference Handbook
Pagination330
Conference Date3-6/07/2016
Conference LocationPoznan, Poland
Type of Workcontributed presentation.
Key Wordsresearch; supply chain; 3D printing; stochastic programming; postponment; modeling; additive manufacturing
AbstractIn this contribution we would like to present the results of a research project developed by Accenture and BarcelonaTech aiming at studying the advantages of ultra-postponement with 3D printing using the analytical tools of operational research. In this project a new two-stage stochastic programming decision model has been developed to assess (a) the convenience of the introduction of 3D printing in any generic supply chain and (b) the optimal degree of postponement, the so called Customer Order Decoupling Point (CODP), assuming uncertainty in demand for multiple markets. To this end we propose the formulation of a generic supply chain through an oriented graph that represents all the alternative technologies that can be deployed, defined through a set of operations for manufacturing, assembly and distribution, each one characterized by a lead time and cost parameters. Based on this graph we develop a mixed integer two-stage stochastic program that finds the optimal manufacturing technology to meet the demand of each market, the optimal production quantity for each operation and the optimal CODP for each technology. The results obtained with several case studies from real manufacturing companies are presented and analyzed.
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